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66Performance

Moore's Law

Transistors per chip double on a regular cadence.

If

Moore's observation was economic rather than physical: the component count giving the lowest cost per component doubles about every two years. It held for half a century and quietly underwrote every plan that assumed hardware would rescue it — but single-thread performance stopped following it once Dennard scaling ended around 2005.

Then

Do not budget for the hardware bailing out a design. If the workload is single-threaded and latency-bound, next year's machine will not save it — you have to parallelise it or do less work.

Unless

Wirth's Law — the gains get spent rather than banked, and clock speed stopped rising long before transistor counts did

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